/NVIDIA H20 chips/
The U.S. lifted its export ban on NVIDIA’s H20 AI chips in mid-July 2025, allowing shipments to China under license approval. While the move signals a thaw in tech restrictions, the broader trade standoff remains unresolved.
/tarrifs surge & turbulence/
In April, the U.S. imposed reciprocal tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports. China responded with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods, freezing bilateral trade across electronics, machinery, and rare earths. U.S. imports from China fell to $25.4B, down 19% from March.
A 90-day tariff truce began on May 14, reducing headline tariffs to 10%, but additional duties—including Section 301 (25%), Section 232 (50%), and fentanyl-linked tariffs (20%)—kept the effective rate at ~30–55%.
Container volumes from China rose just 0.4% month-over-month, with sourcing shifting toward Vietnam and Indonesia.
/strategic signals/
The H20 chip export lift is part of broader negotiations—including rare earths, semiconductor software, and aircraft engines. It reflects a tactical shift: tech access as leverage, not concession. The truce expires August 12. Talks in Stockholm aim to prevent a snapback to 145% tariffs, but uncertainty looms. For now, the NVIDIA move is a signal—not a solution.